Our highly experienced air traffic forecasting team produce robust, defensible and insightful passenger and cargo forecasts.
Our traffic forecasts are used to support a variety of business decisions. These include long-term new route assessments for airlines, long-term masterplans for airports and financial transactions (airport or airline acquisition, disposal and refinancing).
We tailor our forecast output to your needs, with segmentation aligned with key value drivers. As part of our analysis, we undertake market analysis to assess potential upside or downside risks, as well as macroeconomic and market positioning factors.
Passenger, Cargo, ATM and Secondary Forecasts
Our skilled modellers use a variety of analytical techniques to approach each forecast, reflecting the particular circumstances of the market in question, as well as the nature of the required forecast output. These include:
- Econometric modelling, incorporating macroeconomic factors (e.g. GDP), microeconomic factors (e.g. fares and taxes, fuel cost, emissions trading, etc.) and traffic elasticities.
- Bottom-up forecasts (by route, airline, aircraft , frequency).
- Traffic allocation modelling (passenger choice between competing airports).
- Connections modelling (QSI).
- Scenario testing and sensitivity analysis. Peak period and design day modelling, used to inform terminal and airfield masterplanning, surface access development and environmental assessment.
- Non-aeronautical forecasts (e.g. car park occupation).