Covid-19 pandemic: How will the aviation sector respond in 2021?

The Covid-19 pandemic is a once in four generations shock to the aviation sector. The impact in 2020 was sudden and severe; passenger kilometres flown have reset to levels not seen since 2001.

International and Long Haul services are most impacted; International capacity reduced by -63% in 2020 versus -30% reduction in Domestic capacity.

Full Service Carriers are more impacted than LCCs and will also be slower to recover.

2021 traffic forecasts from leading providers have generally become more pessimistic throughout 2020. Since April 2020, AviaSolutions and Bain&Co have consistently forecast a recovery to 2019 passenger levels by 2023-2024.

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