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Listed Airports during Covid-19: an AviaSolutions insight
Most sector observers and investors will be familiar with the operating model at the larger airports, which in more normal circumstances feature annual incremental traffic growth with revenues closely linked to volume, and operating costs generally more fixed. EBITDA and EBITDA margin typically improve accordingly.
However, in these far from normal times caused by the Covid-19 pandemic the typical relationships between an airport’s volume, revenue and operating costs are fractured, certainly in the short-term.
In Q2 2020, airport passenger volumes dropped more sharply than at any time in living memory. The outlook for the return of air traffic remains very uncertain with business and leisure air travel still highly vulnerable to national and local rates of Covid-19 infection.
Aeronautical revenue at the larger airports is typically subject to economic regulation (e.g. price caps) which are linked to capital investment plans and volume projections. In the near-term this relationship is also broken, with most regulators deferring regulatory pricing resets until some degree of market stability returns.
Equally challenging is how airports can manage their operating cost base in the short term given the precipitous fall in traffic and the absence of visibility as to how the aviation market will recover in the coming months and years. There are also significant one-off cash costs associated with re-structuring an airport business at a time when airports are seeking to preserve liquidity.
A number of listed European airport groups have published 2020 half year results in the past month. Whilst at first glance the half-year passenger volume and EBITDA results do not appear too alarming, the quarter-on-quarter results illustrate just how much of a challenge these airports are facing as we move into Q3 2020. In this bulletin we present and compare the latest financial results from the following airport groups: AENA, Groupe ADP, Fraport, Heathrow and FHWG.
Bologna Airport Traffic Forecast and Design Day Schedules
In 2025, Bologna Airport engaged Avia Solutions to undertake an independent traffic forecast and design day forecast schedules, with the granularity needed to support the airport Masterplan design process for future infrastructure requirements in the terminal building.
Building on our prior work in 2017 and 2023, the project included detailed design day modelling for several IATA seasons to reflect temporary terminal constraints during a major phased expansion programme. Deliverables included:
- Short and medium term traffic forecast (passengers and movements) for the period 2025-2031.
- Design day forecast schedules and parameters for 9 IATA seasons in the short and medium term (2025-2031).
- Long term design day forecast schedules for 3 IATA summer seasons in 2035, 2040 and 2046, including two operational scenarios per season reflecting differing runway usage.
- The busy day and peak hour analyses (passengers and movements) included stand demand forecasts by aircraft code and detailed inputs into CAST passenger flow simulation.
Over the next few years, the airport is expanding the terminal capacity which will result in temporary reductions in capacity and subsystem capacity increases as the works progress. Working closely with AdB operations and aviation teams, we re-optimised schedules to maintain service levels during construction phases.
Our insights enabled AdB to align infrastructure capacity delivery with market demand, minimise operational risk during construction, and provide a clear long term growth pathway for regulators and stakeholders.
Services: Traffic Forecasting (Short & Medium Term), Long term Design Day Modelling, Infrastructure Planning Support
Region: Italy
New Tashkent Airport traffic forecast, cargo strategy & design day modelling
From 2023 to 2025, Avia Solutions supported Vision Invest with comprehensive traffic forecasts to support the financing, design and development of the New Tashkent Airport, which will replace the existing facility and become a major Central Asian hub.
- Our work combined detailed bottom-up short-term visibility with long-term econometric modelling, segmented by domestic, regional and international demand.
- Incorporating airline fleet plans, policy liberalisation and competitive dynamics across Central Asia.
- Developed unconstrained and constrained scenarios, a complete set of peak-hour demand inputs, and a 2035 Design Day Flight Schedule to guide masterplanning and capital investment requirements.
The forecast and the project supported Uzbekistan’s ambition to become a major Silk Road tourism and connecting-traffic hub.
Services: Traffic Forecasting, Design-Day Schedules, Investor Support, Stakeholder Consultation, Airline Strategy.
Region: Central Asia
Royal Mail fleet upgrade review
In 2025, Avia Solutions supported Royal Mail in reviewing strategic options to replace ageing B737-400 freighters, evaluating the benefits of transitioning to newer B737-800 and A321P2F platforms.
We benchmarked the cost, reliability and operational implications of each alternative aircraft operation and provided a scored evaluation to support decision-making.
The analysis highlighted clear advantages in operational integrity and fuel efficiency under upgrade scenarios, supporting Royal Mail as it modernises its critical domestic air logistics network.
Services: Cargo & Logistics Advisory, Technical & Commercial Evaluation, Fleet Strategy, Operational Cost Benchmarking
Region: UK
Avia Solutions advises on Zagreb Airport Traffic Forecast
In 2025, Avia Solutions conducted a detailed review of Sponsor’s traffic forecasts for Zagreb Airport and revisions following the impact of COVID-19.
The forecast period was 2025 to 2047 and traffic was segmented into International/Domestic/Transit, Scheduled/Non-Scheduled/GA and airline type.
We reviewed the reasonableness of multiple assumptions driving the forecast and assessed the historic and potential strategy of key carriers, particularly Croatia Airlines.
Services: Traffic Forecasting, Airline Strategy
Region: Croatia
Avia Solutions supports airport client at Routes World Forum 2025
In September 2025, Avia Solutions attended the Routes World forum in Hong Kong, to represent its U.S. Air Service Development client: San Jose Mineta International Airport.
We developed detailed route pitches for several international airlines, including:
- QSI and revenue forecasts.
- Inbound and outbound volumes, business/leisure splits.
- O&D and connecting flows.
- Cabin/yield data.
The pitches included robust market research on tourism, trade, diaspora, ethnic and cultural links at both ends of the route to support and validate the demand forecasts.
We presented our business cases to airlines alongside the client, generating significant follow up dialogue for potential new international services to the airport.
Services: Route Development Strategy, Traffic Forecasting, QSI Modelling, Catchment Analysis, Airline Business Case Support
Region: U.S.
Maersk Air Cargo AOC certification support
In 2025, Avia Solutions provided airline technical advisory support to Maersk Air Cargo as it secured a permanent UK AOC following post-Brexit operational exemptions.
This included delivering regulatory certification support, specialist compliance advice and supplying key expertise across safety, airworthiness and ground operations.
Our engagement ensures continuity of critical UK freight operations, supports regulatory efficiency, and enhances Maersk’s ability to grow its UK fleet sustainably.
Services: Regulatory Certification, Safety & Compliance, Nominated Persons Supply
Region: UK
Transatlantic Start-up Airline technical feasibility support
From 2024 to 2025, Avia Solutions was engaged by a new airline venture to evaluate aircraft availability and performance for transatlantic long-haul operations using private terminal infrastructure.
Our work included a global aircraft market search, lease-rate benchmarking, and technical suitability screening for operating from airports with runway and weight restrictions.
We assessed multiple Airbus aircraft variants across mission profiles, payload-range requirements and configuration options.
Working with OEM partners, we validated aircraft performance assumptions and landing-weight compliance based on specific airport constraints.
The output provided the client with a shortlist of viable aircraft and airport solutions, and a clear technical pathway to support its next-stage investment decisions, including preliminary discussions with lessors.
Services: Fleet Evaluation, Aircraft Sourcing Strategy, Performance Screening
Region: Europe / North America
Tampa International Airport route development support
From 2021-2025, Avia Solutions supported Tampa International Airport under a multi-year air service development contract focused on securing new long-haul connectivity.
We delivered detailed O&D demand forecasts, QSI-driven connection analysis, aircraft performance screening and full commercial business cases used in direct engagement with airline network teams.
Our analysis included socioeconomic demand drivers at both ends of the routes (tourism, trade, diaspora, business links, education, cultural links etc.).
Our work contributed to transatlantic and Latin American route successes, improving connectivity for the Tampa Bay region e.g.:
-
Amsterdam connectivity reinstated via Delta (SkyTeam JV with KLM)
- Avianca – Bogota to Tampa
Launched 2025, providing strong new links to South America
For further target markets under consideration, Avia Solutions has provided similar analysis to support confidential airline discussions.
Services: Route Development Strategy, Traffic Forecasting, QSI Modelling, Catchment Analysis, Airline Business Case Support
Region: USA
London City Airport full technical due diligence
In 2025, Avia Solutions provided technical due diligence support to a major global infrastructure investor considering investment in London City Airport.
Deliverables included business plan assessment, traffic forecasts and scenario modelling, regulatory and operational capacity review, and commercial value-driver analysis.
Our insights helped inform bid strategy and risk evaluation ahead of a potential acquisition process.
Services: Commercial Due Diligence, Traffic Forecasting, Financial Model Inputs and Scenarios, Risk Assessment
Region: UK
Belfast City Airport fixed base operator procurement
In 2025, Avia Solutions acted as commercial adviser to Belfast City Airport in the competitive tender for its Fixed Base Operator (FBO) Management Services.
We structured and ran a full procurement process, including site visit to assess FBO facilities, concession agreement documentation, scoring criteria and bid evaluation methodologies.
The assignment helped BCA to select the most suitable operator for its FBO operations, and improve its premium service delivery for corporate and private aviation while positioning the airport to for future investment in upgraded facilities.