In 2018, AviaSolutions was engaged to provide full commercial due diligence services to Infracapital with respect to the potential sale of a 49% stake in London Luton Airport. The due diligence focussed on those aspects which most influence value and risk.

We provided a passenger traffic assessment in the context of the London aviation market, the airport’s capital development programme and aeronautical charges. Base case, low case and high case passenger forecasts; and revenue / yield aeronautical forecasts for all cases. We assessed the impact of evolving capacity constraints in the London aviation market and guidance on non-aeronautical activities, operating costs and the capital investment programme. Lastly we provided Busy-day / busy-hour throughput analysis based on annual traffic forecasts to highlight expected peak-hour demand on airfield and terminal facilities.

To find out more, please get in contact with one of our expert aviation consultants.

From 2017 through 2018, AviaSolutions supported the business plan, equity raising and launch of Argentina’s first low cost carrier, Flybondi.

AviaSolutions worked closely with the airline management team and developed a detailed business plan and launch schedule including route forecasts, network development strategy and aircraft delivery.

Flybondi successfully launched in 2018 and currently serves 18 destinations utilising 5 B737-800 aircraft.

In 2018, a leading global airport infrastructure investor engaged AviaSolutions to provide a full business plan and traffic forecasts for the OMA Mexican Airports group, comprising 13 airports. AviaSolutions provided:

• Short and long term traffic forecasts (domestic and international) integrated with the capital program.
• Aeronautical revenue forecasts and regulatory environment (caps).
• Non-aeronautical revenue forecasts and peer airport / region benchmarking.
• Operating expenses and capex profiling (peak hour profiling).
• Excel models and associated link sheets.

The project was delivered within a very demanding timeframe to great satisfaction of the client.

AviaSolutions provided traffic forecasts and market analysis on Sofia Airport, Bulgaria on behalf of Fraport in 2018.

We prepared detailed passengers forecasts to 2055 including air transport movements and peak hour movements. We also provided a Transfer Sheet giving quarterly forecasts to 2055 of some 160 dis-aggregations of the basic forecasts. Airline interviews with key airlines were conducted to inform the forecasts.

The passenger forecasts included number of arrival and departure, domestic and international passengers, split into O&D, transfer, and transit. Passenger mix was split  by business / leisure / VFR. The ATM forecasts were split by domestic / international, passenger / freighter flight / general aviation (as applicable), plus breakdown by ICAO wing type category.

From 2017 through 2018, AviaSolutions was engaged by the Nigerian Ministry of Transport (Aviation) to advise on planning for a potential new national carrier.

AviaSolutions advised on the optimal network for the planned new airline fleet (14 aircraft over 3 years with an aspiration to operate on domestic, regional and intercontinental routes). The project commenced with an initial country-wide market study, considering the competition, bilateral agreements and other market features (e.g. value of the Nigerian Naira, airport capacity constraints etc.) that could influence the pace of traffic / network growth and the pathway to profitability.

Using data made available by the Ministry, combined with Avia’s own Sabre MI and IATA / OEF data, AviaSolutions established a 3-year network growth plan based on a hub and spoke network from Abuja and Lagos.

In 2017, Deutsche Asset Management engaged AviaSolutions to provide strategic and commercial due diligence advice for the acquisition of 60% of the SAVE Group – the operator of Venice (VCE) and Treviso (TSF) airports, and minority investor in Verona, Brescia and Cherleroi airports.

AviaSolutions provided comprehensive support including traffic forecasts, regulatory review and modelling, business plan and capital investment programme.

Deutsche Asset Management collaborated with Infravia and were selected as the winning bidders, with the deal closing in August 2017. Shortly after the announcement of the SAVE acquisition, Deutsche Bank appointed AviaSolutions to develop a further business plan for Verona Airport – one of the minority investments (40%) in SAVE’s portfolio.

From 2016 through 2017, AviaSolutions was engaged by Avinor to support the airport in its ambition to develop a world class cold storage cargo facility at Oslo Airport. The Avia team supported Avinor through commercial and planning activities for over 14 months.

We developed a set of strategic masterplan options for the establishment of a state of the art seafood export centre and undertook detailed market analysis and identification of key markets.

We liaised with key stakeholders including Norway’s largest exporters of seafood and produced detailed schematic drawings and developed high level renderings and an indicative development program with costing.

In 2016, AviaSolutions undertook a review of the Modernising Manchester business case. Manchester Airports Group had developed a new business case based on the previously agreed long term business plan (Premier) that envisaged the construction of additional infrastructure over and above the currently agreed masterplan.

AviaSolutions produced a review and validation of a 25 year business plan and opinion as to its plausibility. We provided a view of assumptions as to whether they were conservative or aggressive including our rationale and analysis.

The review informed a Board Paper that MAG subsequently presented.

In 2016, AviaSolutions was engaged by a consortium of investors to provide strategic and commercial due diligence advice for the potential acquisition of Nice, Cannes and St.Tropez Airports. The scope of works included traffic forecasts, business plan and capital investment programme review.

We delivered the full scope of the business plan assessment within unusually short timeframes, providing a comprehensive report for the Consortium inclusive of multiple sensitivities and scenarios including the more recent impact assessment from the Brexit result.

In 2015, AviaSolutions was engaged by Morgan Stanley to provide Traffic, Business Plan and Capital Expenditure forecasts for Aeroporti di Roma (comprising Rome Fiumicino and Rome Ciampino airports).

AviaSolutions provided comprehensive strategic and commercial due diligence including review of management Base Case projections, critique of methodology and outputs, and provide alternative traffic forecasts, business plan and capital expenditure estimates, including sensitivities.

We coordinated with Morgan Stanley and other sales advisors, focusing on investor value and growth opportunities.